Unpredictability: functional consequences, but also human consequences
The first consequence of the unpredictability of a situation is obvious: work organisation processes lose their efficiency. They can no longer be applied as they stand, and have to be adapted and modified from time to time. This results in a deviation from a ‘normal’ situation, performance indicators become out of kilter, and the achievement of objectives becomes more distant.
Most of the time, the performance gap is negotiated with management, so as to reduce it by taking exceptional measures, or to reduce the consequences on the overall functioning of the organisation.
But the second consequence is more profound: the team loses its cohesion and collaborative effectiveness. It's as if, faced with the unpredictability of the situation, each employee feels disengaged and has to focus on his or her individual situation, to the detriment of collective coherence.
Heterogeneous reactions in the team that hamper coordination
Unpredictability is a characteristic that leads to a loss of reference points for those who experience it. Reactions to this loss differ because individual character traits lead to different perceptions of uncertainty. To understand this, we need only ask the question: does uncertainty represent a threat or an opportunity? The answer depends on our understanding of the context, but not only that. Our tolerance of ambiguity, our desire for something different, our past experiences, etc. will all lead us to view an unpredictable situation with varying degrees of comfort, responsiveness and ability to see beyond it...
For the manager, there will be as many individual dynamics as there are team members.
- This leads to an initial organisational imbalance, as relations between team members are affected.
Reactions that change over time
We adapt to everything, even unpredictability. But everyone does so at their own pace. From initial stupefaction and paralysis in the face of the unexpected, we move on to frantic corrective reactions, then to moments of retreat, or even discouragement... For the manager who is experiencing these emotional changes and witnessing those of his or her team members, it is all the more difficult to take action as postures change from one day to the next.
- The second organisational imbalance is the temporary inability of employees to carry out their mission in a continuous and standard way. Individual dynamics become unstable and coordination suffers.
Reactions that we don't know are relevant
Unpredictability is often confused with change. Managers, in particular, have to react to the loss of reference points and create new ones to get their teams back into action. However, sometimes an uncertain situation does not lead to any upheaval, either because the consequences have been miscalculated, or more simply because the uncertainty is temporary and everything returns to normal. In the meantime, teams have become disorganised and then reorganised according to a different logic, certain interpersonal links have become strained, and sometimes even antagonisms between people or functions have been revealed. How can we go back to the way things were, or simply step back and readapt to a situation that is stable and close to the original one?
- This is the third organisational imbalance that threatens managers: over-reaction. There is great temptation and pressure to take strong measures to get the team back up and running as quickly as possible, with new processes, new objectives and new indicators.
If these decisions are taken too hastily, the manager will have to deal with ‘it's all for naught’ and ‘I told you so’ from his team. He'll probably lose a little confidence, which he'll pay dearly for when the next unpredictable situation arises.
If these decisions are made too hastily, the manager will have to deal with ‘it's all for naught’ and ‘I told you so’ from his team. He'll probably lose a little confidence, which he'll pay dearly for when the next unpredictable situation arises.
If these decisions are made too hastily, the manager will have to deal with ‘it's all for naught’ and ‘I told you so’ from his team. They will probably lose a little confidence, which they will pay dearly for when the next unpredictable situation arises.
Uncertainty: an opportunity to enrich your managerial posture
Heterogeneous, unstable team reactions to the organization's demand for predictability: this is the tension to which managers are exposed when faced with the uncertainty of their management situation. What can be done to transform this tension into a dynamic at the service of his mission?
The first reflex is to compensate for unpredictability and return to a situation that can once again be managed in a linear fashion. This choice is individually exhausting, costly in terms of team cohesion, and its success is far from guaranteed.
The alternative is to accept uncertainty as an integral part of the context (and not as a bump in the road). In this way, team cohesion can be maintained and, above all, individual dynamics can be coordinated once again. This new form of management is increasingly attractive, and requires new management tools.
Managers who integrate unpredictability into their posture and roadmap will apply a number of new principles:
- There's no right or wrong way to react to unpredictability. Each attitude has its advantages and disadvantages. Managers and employees alike must therefore welcome the diversity of reactions (including their own) without judgment.
- Individual and collective awareness of the reactions generated by unpredictability is beneficial to team cohesion: in a context of unpredictability, every manager must therefore encourage the expression of different points of view, and present them all as acceptable.
- Managers need to see unpredictability as a harbinger of change... while considering that this may not necessarily be the case, and accepting that the situation may simply return to normal.
To adopt these principles is, ultimately, to affirm that being a manager is not about avoiding unpredictable situations or correcting them for your team. On the contrary, it's about helping your team to become smarter and more cohesive, individually and collectively, by accepting uncertainty as such.
To find out more :
Leadership: Stimulating your team in the face of the unexpected
